Toronto Election :: Animal Farm
Rob Förd :: Boxer
Dough Förd :: Napoleon
Friday, September 12, 2014
Monday, September 8, 2014
Every candidate has a transit plan pulled out of his/her ass
Hey, remember me? I'll soon be taking a hard squint at many of the crazy third party mayoral candidates for 2014. How'd that last election work out for y'all?
Anyway, some thoughts about the latest mania sweeping Toronto city politics: transit plans! You simply can't be a serious mayor unless you utterly pull a wild-eyed fantasy map out of your ass and claim you'll build that as mayor. Hey, I love TTC fantasy maps as much as the next transit geek. I love looking at transit maps in cities where they seem to build whole new lines every five years. Hi, Seoulites! But fantasy aside, if it comes down to a choice between subways or LRTs, what's the sane choice?
Funding that shit
Now, lots of candidates talk about their vision for transit and sometimes they even talk about funding it. Anyone can have a vision. It really comes down to a plan to fund your vision. Hence the reason I've never been able to realize my vision for hotels in space.
How do you finance it? That comes down to you need to do what every mayor has done for decades: ask the feds and the province for billions of dollars they're not willing to give Toronto. I remind you a definition of "crazy" is "doing the same thing over and over again but each time expecting a different result." Although when I talk about third party candidates as being crazy, I don't mean the clinical definition. I just mean they're intense and interesting. But when I talk about the major candidates thinking this time asking the feds and the province for billions of dollars everything will be different, well, I really do mean that person is crazy. Completely, utterly bat shit unhinged crazy. They're a complete danger to the City of Toronto.
But I also suspect most of the major no good assholes had their fingers crossed behind their backs when they proposed their clearly bat shit crazy fantasy maps. So maybe they're not crazy. Just crafty.
Building that shit
When you see a candidate fantasy map, count each new subway line. Budget 10 years per line. Herr Förd wants 4 new lines in phase 1. That's 40 years. Phase 2 ups it to 4 more new lines. That's another 40 years. If you are reading this, I guarantee you'll be dead by the time phase 2 is completed. If not, my estate will pay you $5. Also, ask yourself where you'll be in 40 years? I'll most likely be dead. Will you be dead? Retired? Okay, maybe your kids will be able to use it. So if you don't mind paying for a transit system your kids will use, then go for it. And do you really think in 40 years time, by the time we cut the ribbon on the final phase 1 line, the existing TTC lines (Bloor/Yonge/Sheppard) will be just humming along like greased lightening? We will need to be appropriating billions to simply repair those lines over the next 40 years.
Things look a little better when you look at LRT lines. That's about 5 years per line. The original Transit City plan called for 9 LRT lines. We could build 8 of them in the time it takes to build out 4 subway lines.
Really? Ten years? Aren't you just pulling numbers out of your ass?
Well, as they say in any financial document, past performance is no indication of future performance, then maybe. I'm just looking at the history of building transit stuff. From the moment the province and feds promise "no kidding, we're really giving you money", it takes about 10 years to build a subway line or an extension. To build an LRT line it takes 5 years. Something else to consider. When we build subway lines we tend to build short lines with only a few stations. When we build LRT lines we build longer lines with a larger number of more useful stops. Of course, maybe, this time thing will be different. We can build a new subway line in under 10 years or we can build two lines concurrently. Yeah, maybe this time things will be different. Keep hoping!
A short history of building subways in the modern era of Toronto
On the Yonge/University line the North York station was added in 1987. Nearly 10 years later it added Downsview. One stop north. In 10 years.
The Sheppard and Eglinton lines were funded in 1993. A decade later, Toronto got half of what was funded. Basically a 5.5 km four stop subway. Eglinton was killed off.
The University line extension was funded in 2006. Ten years later five new stops will come on line.
Over on the Bloor line, Islington was opened in 1968. It took 12 years to dig it one stop to the west, to Kipling. Likewise, Warden was opened in 1968. 12 years later they extended it one stop to the east, to Kennedy.
Bottom line: it takes about 10 years to build or extend a subway line. The only time we tried to build two subway lines concurrently we ran out of money quickly and killed off one line.
A short history of building LRTs in the modern era of Toronto
We've had better success with building LRTs on their own dedicated lines. The St Clair line was done in 5 years. It's 7 km long.
The Spadina LRT was green lit 1992 and came on line 5 years later. It's 6.6 km.
Conclusion
If you're looking for something you might enjoy during your working career, LRTs are the way to go for a number of very fine reason. First, Herr Förd hates them. Second, they can be built quicker. Third, the lines can be longer and can accommodate more stops (more stops, less walking, your property is more valuable closer it is to an LRT station). Fourth, no station politics. Building a subway line is a heap of politics but then deciding where to build the station, what to name it, who gets a station, who doesn't, can slow shit down a lot.
Anyway, some thoughts about the latest mania sweeping Toronto city politics: transit plans! You simply can't be a serious mayor unless you utterly pull a wild-eyed fantasy map out of your ass and claim you'll build that as mayor. Hey, I love TTC fantasy maps as much as the next transit geek. I love looking at transit maps in cities where they seem to build whole new lines every five years. Hi, Seoulites! But fantasy aside, if it comes down to a choice between subways or LRTs, what's the sane choice?
Funding that shit
Now, lots of candidates talk about their vision for transit and sometimes they even talk about funding it. Anyone can have a vision. It really comes down to a plan to fund your vision. Hence the reason I've never been able to realize my vision for hotels in space.
How do you finance it? That comes down to you need to do what every mayor has done for decades: ask the feds and the province for billions of dollars they're not willing to give Toronto. I remind you a definition of "crazy" is "doing the same thing over and over again but each time expecting a different result." Although when I talk about third party candidates as being crazy, I don't mean the clinical definition. I just mean they're intense and interesting. But when I talk about the major candidates thinking this time asking the feds and the province for billions of dollars everything will be different, well, I really do mean that person is crazy. Completely, utterly bat shit unhinged crazy. They're a complete danger to the City of Toronto.
But I also suspect most of the major no good assholes had their fingers crossed behind their backs when they proposed their clearly bat shit crazy fantasy maps. So maybe they're not crazy. Just crafty.
Building that shit
When you see a candidate fantasy map, count each new subway line. Budget 10 years per line. Herr Förd wants 4 new lines in phase 1. That's 40 years. Phase 2 ups it to 4 more new lines. That's another 40 years. If you are reading this, I guarantee you'll be dead by the time phase 2 is completed. If not, my estate will pay you $5. Also, ask yourself where you'll be in 40 years? I'll most likely be dead. Will you be dead? Retired? Okay, maybe your kids will be able to use it. So if you don't mind paying for a transit system your kids will use, then go for it. And do you really think in 40 years time, by the time we cut the ribbon on the final phase 1 line, the existing TTC lines (Bloor/Yonge/Sheppard) will be just humming along like greased lightening? We will need to be appropriating billions to simply repair those lines over the next 40 years.
Things look a little better when you look at LRT lines. That's about 5 years per line. The original Transit City plan called for 9 LRT lines. We could build 8 of them in the time it takes to build out 4 subway lines.
Really? Ten years? Aren't you just pulling numbers out of your ass?
Well, as they say in any financial document, past performance is no indication of future performance, then maybe. I'm just looking at the history of building transit stuff. From the moment the province and feds promise "no kidding, we're really giving you money", it takes about 10 years to build a subway line or an extension. To build an LRT line it takes 5 years. Something else to consider. When we build subway lines we tend to build short lines with only a few stations. When we build LRT lines we build longer lines with a larger number of more useful stops. Of course, maybe, this time thing will be different. We can build a new subway line in under 10 years or we can build two lines concurrently. Yeah, maybe this time things will be different. Keep hoping!
A short history of building subways in the modern era of Toronto
On the Yonge/University line the North York station was added in 1987. Nearly 10 years later it added Downsview. One stop north. In 10 years.
The Sheppard and Eglinton lines were funded in 1993. A decade later, Toronto got half of what was funded. Basically a 5.5 km four stop subway. Eglinton was killed off.
The University line extension was funded in 2006. Ten years later five new stops will come on line.
Over on the Bloor line, Islington was opened in 1968. It took 12 years to dig it one stop to the west, to Kipling. Likewise, Warden was opened in 1968. 12 years later they extended it one stop to the east, to Kennedy.
Bottom line: it takes about 10 years to build or extend a subway line. The only time we tried to build two subway lines concurrently we ran out of money quickly and killed off one line.
A short history of building LRTs in the modern era of Toronto
We've had better success with building LRTs on their own dedicated lines. The St Clair line was done in 5 years. It's 7 km long.
The Spadina LRT was green lit 1992 and came on line 5 years later. It's 6.6 km.
Conclusion
If you're looking for something you might enjoy during your working career, LRTs are the way to go for a number of very fine reason. First, Herr Förd hates them. Second, they can be built quicker. Third, the lines can be longer and can accommodate more stops (more stops, less walking, your property is more valuable closer it is to an LRT station). Fourth, no station politics. Building a subway line is a heap of politics but then deciding where to build the station, what to name it, who gets a station, who doesn't, can slow shit down a lot.
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